Open the full report Evidence, operations & evaluation — collapsed
Day outlook
Today
Tomorrow
Where this is
Today's wind readings
Observed wind at Lake Silvaplana during the current Europe/Zurich calendar day. The solid and dashed lines are measurements; the dotted line is what the model forecast for each hour, shown only where the forecast was issued before that hour had started.
Historical wind readings
Browse measured wind and gusts from earlier dates, with the forecast that was on the board before each hour started. The wind and gust lines are station observations; the dotted line is the model.
MeteoSwiss local forecast
Daily summary
Lake water temperature
Live performance
How the deployed model has actually done, checked against the real Silvaplana lake reading (kitesailing.ch primary) with MeteoSwiss Segl-Maria (SIA), ~4km from the lake, as the reference when no lake reading exists.
Station & ingestion health
Attempt history, collection coverage & failure categories
Signal visuals
No hours could be classified against a label threshold yet.
Model evaluation & diagnostics
Frozen holdout evaluation
A separate model, trained only on past seasons and scored once against a season it never trained on, then frozen - this is the honest answer to "how would this do on data it's never seen," and it does not change as the live model keeps learning.
Opens GitHub Actions in a new tab. Select "Run workflow" and enable the run_backtest option.
Feature ablation
Each row is its own model, trained fresh with only the listed features, scored once against the same frozen holdout above. This explains roughly how much each feature group contributes - it is not used to pick a winner, and the deployed model always uses the full feature set.
Technical details
Operational alert tiers (frozen holdout)
Reproducibility & deployment
What the model listens to
The signals it weighs, strongest first. These shift automatically as the model learns.
Rideable days by month
Wind history & model confidence
Known limitations
- Historical retraining and the live loop now share the same SIA-first labeling criterion (lake reading first, Segl-Maria/SIA as reference). SIA is ~4km from the lake; its exact equivalence to the spot is still being measured as lake readings accumulate.
- Backtest features come from Open-Meteo's 0-hour archive, not a genuine forecast with up to five days of lead time - expect live accuracy below the frozen holdout's, especially on the compact longer-range cards.
- The 2026 holdout is a partial season; trust the live accuracy number as it accumulates.