Five-day wind outlook
Estimated likelihood is the model's own probability that each hour will be a rideable wingfoil session - not a guarantee, and not the same as the alert-tier cutoff.
Today
Tomorrow
Following three days
Daily best · longer-range guidanceToday's wind readings
Observed wind at Lake Silvaplana during the current Europe/Zurich calendar day. These are measurements, not model forecasts.
Historical wind readings
Browse measured wind and gusts from earlier dates. These are station observations, not model forecasts.
MeteoSwiss local forecast
Daily summary
Lake water temperature
Live performance
How the deployed model has actually done, checked against the real Silvaplana lake reading (kitesailing.ch primary) with MeteoSwiss Segl-Maria (SIA), ~4km from the lake, as the reference when no lake reading exists.
Station & ingestion health
Attempt history, collection coverage & failure categories
Signal visuals
Frozen holdout evaluation
A separate model, trained only on past seasons and scored once against a season it never trained on, then frozen - this is the honest answer to "how would this do on data it's never seen," and it does not change as the live model keeps learning.
Opens GitHub Actions in a new tab. Select "Run workflow" and enable the run_backtest option.
Feature ablation
Each row is its own model, trained fresh with only the listed features, scored once against the same frozen holdout above. This explains roughly how much each feature group contributes - it is not used to pick a winner, and the deployed model always uses the full feature set.
Technical details
Operational alert tiers (frozen holdout)
Reproducibility & deployment
What the model listens to
The signals it weighs, strongest first. These shift automatically as the model learns.
Rideable days by month
Wind history & model confidence
Known limitations
- Historical retraining and the live loop now share the same SIA-first labeling criterion (lake reading first, Segl-Maria/SIA as reference). SIA is ~4km from the lake; its exact equivalence to the spot is still being measured as lake readings accumulate.
- Backtest features come from Open-Meteo's 0-hour archive, not a genuine forecast with up to five days of lead time - expect live accuracy below the frozen holdout's, especially on the compact longer-range cards.
- The 2026 holdout is a partial season; trust the live accuracy number as it accumulates.